Super Bowl Boxes – Score Change

What’s your super bowl box worth?
So you’re in the super bowl squares pool at work, and you just got your numbers, and you want to know if you should try to trade with Brad from IT.

Instead of just looking at the frequency of scores of the previous 53 Super Bowls, let’s take a look at the results using all regular season and post-season games from 2000-2019 — see the chart below. Or if you want to use only at the playoff games, click that checkbox.

Want to see the expected values for all your super bowl squares? Just enter the cost of a box and the pay-off per score from your own pool and click recalculate!

Rules of the Score-change box pool: Every score change, including extra points (so the first touchdown and extra point would pay for both 6-0 and 7-0). The remaining funds are paid to the final score at the end of the game. If there are enough score changes to exhaust the buy-in, payout stops after that number of changes.

Max number of score changes is 25. Of the 5056 games analyzed, 12 hit that limit.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 $166.38 $50.61 $33.43 $223.36 $114.95 $25.34 $158.68 $231.45 $33.23 $49.70
1 $50.61 $22.35 $10.68 $46.02 $61.47 $9.02 $24.98 $58.84 $23.42 $17.72
2 $33.43 $10.68 $2.06 $20.57 $18.79 $6.43 $12.58 $24.41 $7.16 $13.03
3 $223.36 $46.02 $20.57 $116.34 $77.59 $16.44 $96.38 $143.79 $25.67 $45.04
4 $114.95 $61.47 $18.79 $77.59 $62.90 $16.87 $53.72 $131.96 $24.56 $28.90
5 $25.34 $9.02 $6.43 $16.44 $16.87 $3.28 $11.79 $22.67 $11.33 $6.01
6 $158.68 $24.98 $12.58 $96.38 $53.72 $11.79 $44.62 $90.37 $17.37 $26.96
7 $231.45 $58.84 $24.41 $143.79 $131.96 $22.67 $90.37 $142.21 $29.09 $50.14
8 $33.23 $23.42 $7.16 $25.67 $24.56 $11.33 $17.37 $29.09 $9.81 $6.90
9 $49.70 $17.72 $13.03 $45.04 $28.90 $6.01 $26.96 $50.14 $6.90 $11.23

Each box costs: